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RECENT BLOG POSTS
Last week started off with a rough Monday but then markets rejoiced when CPI numbers came out Tuesday. Even though CPI inflation numbers came in at 8.5%, slightly higher than expectations, the markets dug into the month-over-month increase of a little over 6% and saw the month-to-month inflationa...
04/18/2022
Chart Check (see above) Don't blame the messenger We continue to live in our downtrend channel. We may push the boundaries of resistance/support a little bit, but I expect the downtrend to continue for now (especially as the Fed “plans” to unload the balance sheet). I haven’t spoken about the 50 ...
04/11/2022
 "Our biggest challenge today is completing homes, not selling them, as demand continues to be robust." – Jeff Kaminski, CFO KB Homes Let's GO! We have the potential for a volatile 2 week period ahead of us. This week, we hear from a lot of Fed members ahead of next week’s (4/11 & 4/12) inflation...
04/04/2022
“There is an obvious need to move expeditiously to return the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral level” – Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Hi All!  As I expected, the Fed continued with a quarter-point hike in rates. The markets expected that. Last week I said his outlook would weigh more than...
03/27/2022
“We’re likely to see another year in which 12-month inflation numbers remain uncomfortably high.” – US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen I expect massive volatility this week as the war with Russia and Ukraine continues. A few stories have developed this past weekend.Russia has asked China for assi...
03/14/2022
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Don't forget to Spring Forward tonight and enjoy the extra hour of sunshine tomorrow.Since we are not all farmers, I wish we could just drop the Daylight savings time and not Fall Back.
03/12/2022
Last week I made two calls that are playing out sooner than I expected. The calls: 1) The Fed will hesitate to raise rates during a war and2) there is no way they will raise them the 6-7 times they’ve announced for the 1.5-1.75pt minimum rate hike increase Fed Powell confirmed those 2 calls in on...
03/07/2022
I wrote my usual Rate watch Blog last night but really wanted to expand on the impact of Russia's actions. As I view the markets I am caustiosly optimistic the meglomaniac will come to his senses.Overnight, the Russian ruble collapsed to a record low against the dollar, and its central bank more ...
02/28/2022
“The interest on the public debt for fiscal year 2021 is estimated to be $413 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office”  This essay is a little longer. Hope you enjoy it. As easily predicted, the war in Ukraine has captured headlines. Regardless of one’s views, if the war spreads or ...
02/28/2022
“It’s not tight policy. Don’t let anybody tell you it’s tight policy,” he said. “It’s removal of accommodation that will signal that we take our responsibility seriously.” – St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard I have been saying repeatedly that the Fed will be forced to make moves or else be deemed incom...
02/22/2022
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