Derek McClintock's Blog

Finally the bond and mortgage markets may get a little relief from the unrelenting selling that has driven interest rates higher over the last nine sessions. At 8:30 weekly claims were expected to have increased 7K, as reported claims shot up 32K to 360K. The increase takes weekly claims to the h...

Right out of the box this morning, April retail sales were better than forecasts. Sale up 0.1% on estimates of a decline of 0.3%; ex autos -0.1% as expected.  Sales in the U.S. rose in April, reflecting broad-based gains that may ease concern consumers are holding back. The 0.1% gain followed a 0...

Interest rates continue to increase; this morning the 10 yr hit 1.86% in very early trading. Since last Friday’s employment report the bellwether 10 yr has increased 22 bp in rate, a sizeable move in such a short time. On April 3rd the 10 yield was 1.86%, it took a abut a month for the 10 to fall...

This morning at 8:30 the first economic report of the week that drew any attention; weekly jobless claims. Claims were widely thought to be up about 11K to 336K frm last week, as reported claims fell 4K to 323K and last week’s claims revised slightly higher 327K frm 324K originally reported. Clai...

It was another quiet start this morning with no news again today. This week has been almost completely void of any market moving news. The 10 yr note this morning early was at 1.79% up another basis point, while mortgage prices started unchanged; MBS prices were flat yesterday. Prior to the 9:30 ...

Treasury rates continue to increase this morning, MBS prices slightly weaker as a result. Yesterday the 10 increased 3 bp to 1.77% while by the end of the day mortgage prices were unchanged. At 9:00 this morning 30 yr mortgage prices were down 10 bp and the 10 at 1.78% +1 bp. As yesterday, there ...

We are a little early this morning due to my schedule. The April employment report did some near term damage to the current bullish outlook for interest rates. The unemployment rate fell to 7.5% down 1 bp, non-farm jobs and non-farm private jobs in April were better than expected and there were u...

It is the first Friday of the month and its employment day. Always a volatile report, today no different. April unemployment declined to 7.5% frm 7.6% last month, markets expected unchanged at 7.6%. Non-farm jobs, expected +153K, increased to 165K; after Wednesday’s ADP miss on job growth many tr...

Pending Home Sales at a 3-year High According to the Associated Press this morning, the number of signed contracts to buy homes rose in March to the highest level in three years.  The kicker is that sales are believed to actually be held back by limited supply.  There continues to be proof around...

Treasuries and mortgages opened better this morning, the 10 yr at 1.65% yesterday’s low and -2 bp frm the close. At 9:00 30 yr MBSs +12 bps frm yesterday’s unchanged prices. 8:30 Q1 employment cost index was +0.3%, expectations called for an increase of 0.5%; no reaction to the data as expected. ...