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Rainer
55,053
Joe D'Agostino
NMLS# 729950 - Manahawkin, NJ
Mortgage Officer 46 years!

A  good way to predict which way mortgage rates are headed is to look at the 10-year bond yield. You can find it on finance websites alongside other stock tickers, or in the newspaper. (The use of the 10 year bond is due to the fact that a 30 year mortgage will payoff or refinance in approx. 10 years.) If it’s moving higher, mortgage rates probably are too. If it’s dropping, mortgage rates may be improving as well.

To get an idea of where 30-year fixed mortgage rates will be, use a spread of about 150 to 170 basis points, or 1.70% above the current 10-year bond yield. This spread accounts for the increased risk associated with a mortgage vs. a bond. So a 10-yr bond yield of 4.00% plus the 170 basis points would put mortgage rates around 5.70%. Of course, this spread can and will vary over time, and is really just a quick way to ballpark mortgage interest rates. Hope this makes sense....

Mar 16, 2017 08:01 AM
Ambassador
4,580,145
Jeff Dowler, CRS
eXp Realty of California, Inc. - Carlsbad, CA
The Southern California Relocation Dude

#3

Mar 16, 2017 07:53 AM
Rainmaker
821,972
Olga Simoncelli
Veritas Prime, LLC dba Veritas Prime Real Estate - New Fairfield, CT
CONSULTANT, Real Estate Services & Risk Management

Treasury notes

Mar 16, 2017 06:44 AM
Rainmaker
710,004
Richard Bazinet /MBA, CRS, ABR
West USA Realty - Scottsdale, AZ
Phoenix Scottsdale. Sellers, Buyers & Relocations

3

 

Mar 16, 2017 06:34 AM
Rainmaker
1,231,002
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® e-Pro CRS RCS-D Vets
Big Block Realty 858.232.8722 - La Jolla, CA
& Host of Postcards From Success Podcast

I'm phoning a friend, Jason E. Gordon answer please.

Mar 16, 2017 06:28 AM
Rainmaker
1,922,214
Anthony Acosta - ALLATLANTACONDOS.COM
Harry Norman, REALTORS® - Atlanta, GA
Associate Broker

2. Federal Reserve Lending Rate

Mar 16, 2017 06:26 AM
Rainmaker
4,210,906
Wayne Martin
Wayne M Martin - Chicago, IL
Real Estate Broker - Retired

The leading indicator is the ten year treasury notes. The market is sensitive to yield!

Mar 16, 2017 06:15 AM
Ambassador
2,570,942
Fred Griffin Florida Real Estate
Fred Griffin Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Licensed Florida Real Estate Broker

 What consumers choose to pay.

Mar 16, 2017 05:43 AM
Rainmaker
1,044,339
Dave Martin (703) 585-4687
Fairfax Realty - Fairfax, VA
Making Realty Dreams a Reality #WeWillGetYouHome

In general the instrucment that mortgages tend to follow (not identical just to give you an idea) would be the 10 year notes. That being said however there are many other factors to consider beyond that, banks will charge what they can so the market and competition play factors as well.

Dec 12, 2017 06:03 AM
Rainmaker
1,707,423
Joe Pryor
The Virtual Real Estate Team - Oklahoma City, OK
REALTOR® - Oklahoma Investment Properties

No me that I am sure.

Mar 23, 2017 07:26 PM
Rainmaker
4,118,298
Nina Hollander, Broker
Coldwell Banker Realty - Charlotte, NC
Your Greater Charlotte Realtor

Is this a test?

Mar 18, 2017 06:34 AM
Rainmaker
4,799,501
Gabe Sanders
Real Estate of Florida specializing in Martin County Residential Homes, Condos and Land Sales - Stuart, FL
Stuart Florida Real Estate

A roll of the dice?

Mar 18, 2017 06:04 AM
Rainmaker
1,387,343
Ryan Huggins - Thousand Oaks, CA
https://HugginsHomes.com - Thousand Oaks, CA
Residential Real Estate and Investment Properties

I'd say the Federal Reserve is one of the main factors.

Mar 17, 2017 08:37 AM
Rainmaker
1,639,886
Sandy Padula and Norm Padula, JD, GRI
HomeSmart Realty West - Carlsbad, CA
Presence, Persistence & Perseverance

LIBOR one might say as well as the others you mentioned, but when the day is over; it is really consumers. If too high, they don't buy and the FED loosens rates to the market.

Mar 17, 2017 07:14 AM
Rainmaker
6,607,734
Roy Kelley
Realty Group Referrals - Gaithersburg, MD

The market.

Mar 17, 2017 05:20 AM
Rainmaker
5,588,332
Ron and Alexandra Seigel
Napa Consultants - Carpinteria, CA
Luxury Real Estate Branding, Marketing & Strategy

Annette,

Everyone gave great answers, and we have noting to add.  A

Mar 16, 2017 08:10 PM
Ambassador
3,986,710
Debbie Reynolds, C21 Platinum Properties
Platinum Properties- (931)771-9070 - Clarksville, TN
The Dedicated Clarksville TN Realtor-(931)320-6730

It is not as simple as it used to be. It is determined by the investor trends and where they are putting their money. Follow the money.

Mar 16, 2017 06:58 PM
Rainmaker
3,985,875
William Feela
WHISPERING PINES REALTY - North Branch, MN
Realtor, Whispering Pines Realty 651-674-5999 No.

There are a lot of reasons for where the rates are

Mar 16, 2017 03:52 PM
Ambassador
972,358
John Meussner
Mortgages in AZ, CA, CO, DE, FL, GA, MD, MT, NC, NJ, NV, OK, OR, PA, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV - Fair Oaks, CA
#MortgageMadeEasy Fair Oaks, CA 484-680-4852

Trick question.  The correct answer is none of the above.  Largely, supply, demand, and competition determine rates.

 

Economic, geopolitical, and regulatory factors also play a role.

 

As soon as anyone starts gauging rates off the 10 year, it throws a curveball (not often, but it happens).  Same with the DOW.  

 

And then of course you have conventional/GSE loans, FHA loans, VA loans, and portfolio products like bank statement loans that all have different factors influencing each of them.  

Mar 16, 2017 01:14 PM
Rainmaker
5,571,923
Barbara Todaro
RE/MAX Executive Realty - Retired - Franklin, MA
Previously Affiliated with The Todaro Team

10 year treasury note.... but every day is a new happening, isn't it!!!

Mar 16, 2017 11:12 AM
Rainmaker
1,153,825
Sam Shueh
(408) 425-1601 - San Jose, CA
mba, cdpe, reopro, pe

Lending rate by Feds ......

Mar 16, 2017 10:32 AM
Rainmaker
557,840
Jason E. Gordon
AmeriFirst Financial Inc, San Diego, CA - San Diego, CA
Sr Loan Officer, CMA, CMPS, CDLP, CDRE, RCSD, CDPE

The best answer is that several factors influence mortgage rates through a series of "ripple effects" throughout the market. In general, "bad news for the economy = good news for mortgage rates" (and vice versa). That said, similar to the stock market, there are constantly market analysts predicting trends ahead of time, then making in-flight adjustments as economic reports get published (which skews the rate sheets of various lenders who are relying on different information and/or strategies when adjusting their pricing). Hope that helps you Thomas J. Nelson, Realtor, CRS 

Mar 16, 2017 09:44 AM
Ambassador
3,056,557
Kathleen Daniels, Probate & Trust Specialist
KD Realty - 408.972.1822 - San Jose, CA
Probate Real Estate

As Ken Jones mentions ... I do not believe it is any one thing.  I do know that some adjustabe notes are tied to bond rates ... but that is loan package specific. 

Mar 16, 2017 09:40 AM
Rainmaker
919,873
Jennifer Mackay
Counts Real Estate Group, Inc. - Panama City, FL
Your Bay County Florida Realtor 850.774.6582

I'm with Ken Jones on this one

Mar 16, 2017 09:25 AM
Ambassador
5,409,680
Bob Crane
Woodland Management Service / Woodland Real Estate, EXP - Stevens Point, WI
Forestland Experts! 715-204-9671

I just read a new blogger post on this a few days ago.

http://activerain.com/blogsview/5034324/what-drives-mortgage-rates-

Mar 16, 2017 07:14 AM
Rainmaker
2,641,802
Richie Alan Naggar
people first...then business Ran Right Realty - Riverside, CA
agent & author

Actually you would think supply & demand plays a part too

Mar 16, 2017 07:11 AM
Rainmaker
1,459,627
Michael Setunsky
Woodbridge, VA
Your Commercial Real Estate Link to Northern VA

Annette Lawrence , Palm Harbor, FL 727-420-4041 2. Federal Reserve Lending Rate

Mar 16, 2017 06:32 AM
Rainer
379,780
David M. Dwares
Title Professionals Corp. - Fort Lauderdale, FL
Title guy with a broker license

I think it's the same guy in Vegas who sets the point spread for the Superbowl. But I could be wrong.

Mar 16, 2017 06:13 AM
Rainmaker
3,331,523
Scott Godzyk
Godzyk Real Estate Services - Manchester, NH
One of the Manchester NH's area Leading Agents

In bankers terms it is based on the federal funds rate which they add their yield. Also known as their profit. Profit is based on a curve determined by risk. SO when the fed raises their borrowing rates, mortgage rates will go up. There is then market forces meaning if no one is borrowing, rates can trend to the lower end of the curve. When new mortgage application rise, the rate stays near the top of the curve. 

Mar 16, 2017 05:55 AM
Ambassador
1,616,354
Harry F. D'Elia III
RentVest - Phoenix, AZ
Investor , Mentor, GRI, Radio, CIPS, REOs, ABR

the market

Mar 16, 2017 05:47 AM