A downward trend in what? Sales activity…sure. The price of homes in many parts of California has risen to the point where they are not affordable. Homes at the lower end of the market are selling more slowly because buyers are tired of getting beaten up. Prices are getting out of reach for many buyers. Sales at the upper end of the market are not impacted as much, so far. We know that the market will change. Change does not a bubble make. A pause…a correction…a softening…these things are not indicative of a bubble bursting. I do not expect a major price adjustment. Increasing prices will slow but not stop, IMO.

I don't believe we are in a bubble in my market. Prices are up only due to lack of inventory. It's not like 10 years ago when prices were going up and we had plenty of inventory.

Okay, here's my theory - yes, LAST MONTH'S data was down 12% year-over-year. That doesn't terrify me - especially when summer months are typically down in sales.

That said, we have a VERY long way to go to even become a level market.  We are down into the 1-month supply range here and it's going to take a while to get to a 6-month supply. Then, we'll talk about a down-turn!

I try not to concentrate on the things where I have no/little influence 

Hi John,
I think this will make "alternative" types of housing (such as what you are such a big proponent of) even more appealing. 

Concentrate on things you can control, like prospecting every day for new business.

John,

Michael Jacobs and I agree.  A

Someone somewhere is always predicting gloom & doom.  When something happens that is bad, they say "see I told you so".  In the mean time, most smart people are working hard, paying attention to changes and adjusting as we go and continuing to be successful. 

It takes several factors to precipitate a bubble. In our area take San Jose, CA as an example home prices rose+19% in first 4 months of 2018. As soon as people who were on the edge jumped to sell mode, the price started leveling off -2%, -5% etc month. That does not mean there is a bubble. It just means it is another normal year. Until there are high tech layoffs the local strong economy holds up home prices. Big employers like Goog, FB, Ducu Sign, Drop Box, Amzn are unlikely to be affected by economy.  We got Intel, Tsla, 100 other established companies.  How about Real Estate sites? 

A bubble can either fueled by an act of God or an act of man. Both are absent at this time. That means an ordinary reset is due. It will still be a sellers market but not with vigor. People who bought within the last 2 years will see an equity dip and the market as a whole will take a long hiccup before stabilizing. 

LOL, no bubble when supply & demand are driving the market; NOT BAD LOANS.

I deal with each day as it unfolds.  My business was comprised of 100% short sales many years ago. If we see another cycle of that ... I'll be ready. 

The bubble will occur only when people start to buy into that thought.

Get rid of more of their current representatives and stop electing anti-americans to seats

That's the first step

I'm not sure if we're headed for a crash, but I do see some difficulties ahead.

Good answers here.

Is it coming? I do see inventory increasing everywhere. The market is still strong though.

I'm seeing some market slowing down in my area BUT when I said slowing down that doesn't mean is it now the buyer's market and buyer can lowball offers. 

I don't see this as a bubble. If the bubble taught us anything it is what can go up can go down. I think this is an issue of the affordibility index and rising interest rates and the market is doing a natural reset.

I think we are in a market where quick flips will be better than buy and holds.

Historically real estate goes through price corrections every 7 years. We are due for this. Prices have gotten so high that few can afford to purchase and the price of  new construction land, development costs, materials and labor have pushed the price for new homes even higher.

We are  slowly going to buyers market in our area.

Homes are overpriced and the buyers that could buy have bought.  The others are still saving down payment, dealing with high rents, or working on careers with more earnings.  SoCal is a market that has been too competitive with prices rising too sharply.  I've had several clients experience bidding wars on homes that just a few years ago nobody would want.  

Inventory is still the driving issue, with costs, permitting, and other regulations delaying much needed building - CA is a regulatory nightmare, so it's no surprise this has been an issue here.

Not to get political, but if the government in CA would get their shit together, the housing market could figure itself out as a free market should. 

But no warnings necessary --- a dip is due (greedy sellers and stupid buyers have done this to the market, to an extent).  I'm actually looking forward to the dip ----- with every heavy seller or buyers market, the disgusting side of the industry comes out to play.  Tough markets make the bad players go away.  

we continue to see fresh listings in our inventory.... if the market tanks again, I think we're set up to weather the storm.... we have a new vein we just tapped into....  we work well together ..... that's our life saving ring.....

Here is what I posted to a similar bubble question on Lab Coat Agents

 CNBC Diana what's her name is not my go-to person for housing advice.  Just saying.

Good luck.

Currently in our market in N. Virginia none of the typical signs of a Housing Bubble have occured at all as of now..Seller's Markets happen, Buyer's Markets happen...never get caught up in runaway frenzy type of buying or selling panic

Good thing to think about.

Had not heard you are having a bubble.

Not ready to call it a bubble. Not seeing the right parameters for that at this time!

Good luck.