Richie Alan  Naggar, agent & author  (people first...then business Ran Right Realty )

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Rainmaker
1,763,682
Bob "RealMan" Timm
Ward County Notary Services - Minot, ND
Owner of Ward Co. Notary Services, retired Realtor

Richie Alan Naggar as it is said daily right here on AR, RE is local. The market right here in Minot ND is correcting by heating up due to increased activity in the oil field.

Oct 20, 2018 05:40 AM
Rainmaker
3,564,658
Nina Hollander
Coldwell Banker Realty - Charlotte, NC
Your Charlotte/Ballantyne/Waxhaw/Fort Mill Realtor

Agreed... there will be some buyers who will be rushing into the market to lock in rates (as one of mine did this week). But I do think price appreciation will level off somewhat and with rising rates become more of a balanced market.

Oct 20, 2018 05:17 AM
Rainmaker
3,730,638
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Los Angeles Pasadena 818.516.4393

Let the experts predict the future...

Oct 20, 2018 05:29 AM
Rainmaker
1,631,617
Lyn Sims
RE/MAX Suburban - Schaumburg, IL
Schaumburg Real Estate

It will be so many years until a buyers market I can't even begin to say on that one. There is not enough inventory for the shift.

Why does everyone want a buyers market? I don't want to go thru that again. Buyers beating up prices. Horrible. I'm all for a sellers market with a steady incline in prices. Prices are never going to stay the same.

Interest rates have been raised too fast & now we have a stall out IMHO.

Oct 20, 2018 05:18 AM
Rainmaker
3,288,477
James Dray
Fathom Realty - Bentonville, AR
Exceptional Agents, Outstanding Results

I've seen a slow down across the market in the last several months.  All in all I see a balanced market in the future

Oct 20, 2018 05:39 AM
Rainmaker
1,231,218
Mary Yonkers
Alan Kells School of Real Estate/Howard Hanna Real Estate - Erie, PA
Erie/PA Real Estate Instructor

Western PA takes a bit longer to catch up with national trends. We describe our market as 'Slow & Steady', neither sharp declines or upward swings. 

Oct 20, 2018 08:04 AM
Ambassador
4,841,781
Bob Crane
Woodland Management Service / Woodland Real Estate, Keller Williams Fox Cities - Stevens Point, WI
Forestland Experts! 715-204-9671

The market is complex, it pays to know the signs and which parts of it are moving at which stages of the shift.

Oct 20, 2018 07:33 AM
Rainmaker
731,372
Chuck Willman UtahHomes.me
Utah Homes - Alpine, UT
Utah Homes

I don't know if I would call it "self-correcting". The Fed has pressed on interest rates as a way to (among other events) curb potential inflation and put pressure on the quick upward movement of pricing in the high growth metros.

The efforts have worked. Prices have not necessarily fallen, but the growth has slowed. The seller's market has begun the shift to a normalized market.

Where I sit, prices have gone up but the growth is on the wain. The luxury market is sleepy. Homes at that price are sitting longer and I don't see much change there.

Affordable houses are tough to find. The market would have to full-on crash before the lower end buyer can find much choice in the marketplace. A decade ago the first time home buyer might debate over the quantity of land they wanted with that starter home. Priced out of new homes, some then wondered about what type of townhome they should choose. Now, quite a few are deciding between townhomes and condos. This is the reality of a sizzling home market in urban high growth areas.

I don't want to be the doom and gloom guy but I do see the brewing potential elements of a crashlet. In other words- I see some bubble stuff. I can't say that this is a certainty; it would require such things as: asleep at the wheel lending, financial market tumbles and an increasingly tough jobs market and layoffs in large sectors, such as tech. I think this potential correction is not inevitable. It's a mild possibility that could be preventable.

That's my take.

Oct 20, 2018 07:07 AM
Rainmaker
705,949
Richard Bazinet /MBA, CRS, ABR
West USA Realty - Scottsdale, AZ
Phoenix Scottsdale. Sellers, Buyers & Relocations

I think our markets have regional disparities... and function as micro-economies on their own. I just published my 2-year forecast in my newsletter, maybe I should publish it on AR.

Oct 20, 2018 07:04 AM
Rainmaker
630,834
Peter Testa
Nationwide Homes - Danbury, CT
PETER TESTA

What goes up must come down. When it will come down... well, if I knew that I'd be rich. When our market started going up, up , up in the 90's I bet a lot of people thought it wouldn't keep going til 2005. A bull market may not see a major correction for an extended period of time. Rates are still low & prices here are still affordable. Guess we'll see but I don't bank on anything other than a short seasonal slowdown during Christmas here. 

Oct 20, 2018 06:44 AM
Rainmaker
2,902,440
Kathleen Daniels, Probate & Trust Specialist
KD Realty - 408.972.1822 - San Jose, CA
Probate Real Estate

A sight shift is taking place in my market.  How far will it shift? Only time will tell. It had to happen as the market was not sustainable.  

Oct 20, 2018 06:40 AM
Rainmaker
4,798,978
Gabe Sanders
Real Estate of Florida specializing in Martin County Residential Homes, Condos and Land Sales - Stuart, FL
Stuart Florida Real Estate

My crystal ball is not working at the moment.

Oct 20, 2018 06:26 AM
Ambassador
1,751,370
Alan May
Jameson Sotheby's International Realty - Evanston, IL
There's no place like home.

I'm not sure we're seeing a true "shift" at this point.  I've experienced a little slow down for 4th quarter, and fully expect our spring market to recover nicely.

Prices don't need to continue to rise, in order for the market to thrive.  Merely buyers need to buy, and sellers need to sell, and there's enough of both to make everyone happy.

Oct 20, 2018 06:23 AM
Rainer
11,900
Ken Jones
Ken Jones Real Estate Advisor - Red Bank, NJ
Helping Agents Build a Secure Financial Future

Richie Alan Naggar Looking back through the history of the United States, the real estate markets - as we know them today - came into widespread existence with the industrial revolution.

Since that time, I've found no measurable periods of equilibrium between supply and demand. Nor has there ever been a market-wide correction (throughout most or all of the country) that wasn't generated by an external force, typically a major general economic boom or bust.

If, in fact, the greater real estate market (being one which exists throughout most of the country) is reaching equilibrium or ever does reach equilibrium without a major external economic event, I believe it will be the first such "natural" self-correction.

All that said, I believe it's highly unlikely that equilibrium will be reached in the greater real estate market.

Great thought-provoking topic!

Oct 20, 2018 06:13 AM
Rainmaker
3,207,740
Scott Godzyk
Godzyk Real Estate Services - Manchester, NH
One of the Manchester NH's area Leading Agents

There is a shift in the market, however this shift is unique as it does not fit into one of the 3 categories, sellers, buyers or neutral market. Here in NH we saw a decrease initially when rates went up. That shifted to a sharo increase when the realization is rates will not go down but only up again. Then buyers started buying again. Sellers still think they can ask any price for their home an dit ends up sitting. There is a shortage of good clean homes priced right. We have too many over priced homes and too many homes needing work. The upper priced homes have slowed considerably and inventory is building. Starter homes and condos can sell in days as there is no slow down in first time buyers. Therefore it depends what type of market you are in by where you are at, what price range you are in and if you are willing to list your home at market value and not above. Rates will determine where this market goes. 

Oct 20, 2018 05:43 AM
Rainmaker
461,056
Dan Pittsenbarger
Keller Williams Western Realty - Bellingham, WA
Improving Conditions

The next shift has begun here. I do think we all play a role in what happens and the media plays a huge role. Today's "Agreement" becomes tomorrow's "Reality". If you get enough folks to think that something is so - it becomes so. Lots of exciting possibilities for every market.

Oct 20, 2018 09:50 AM
Rainmaker
298,564
Joseph Domino 480-390-6011
HomeSmart - Scottsdale, AZ
Real Estate Made Easy

I think the way we look at the market is changing, so we need to be very cautious of the way we interpret statistics. I have seen several articles the have indicated sales have slowed, but I see no real evidence of that on the street.

One of the things we are seeing here in the Phoenix market is that many homes are being sold before they ever hit the MLS. Couple this with a growing number of sales to buyers like Opendoor and OfferPad which don't show up in the MLS. These under the radar sales may be skewing the numbers.

Will interest rates have an effect? Yes, at some point they will. But so far the rates haven't risen enough to disqualify buyers.

 

Oct 20, 2018 09:24 AM
Rainmaker
478,388
Lynnea Miller
Bend Premier Real Estate - Bend, OR
Premier Real Estate Service in Central Oregon

We are moving into a more balanced market. We have had 3 months or less of inventory for several years.  Moving to 4 to 5 months of inventory should stop the escalating prices and provide more opportunities for buyers.

Oct 20, 2018 09:03 AM
Rainmaker
504,038
Diana Dahlberg
1 Month Realty - Pleasant Prairie, WI
Real Estate in Kenosha, WI since 1994 262-308-3563

I don't claim to have a crystal ball, however in my area we are seeing a slight slow down and prices are not increasing at the rate of even a few months ago.  A slight correction that is needed.  I am anticipating a great 2019!

Oct 20, 2018 08:46 AM
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1,706,758
Joe Pryor
The Virtual Real Estate Team - Oklahoma City, OK
REALTOR® - Oklahoma Investment Properties

Not so sure. Rates are rising, wages are still historically low, and not sure about morale.

Oct 20, 2018 08:10 AM
Rainmaker
1,101,533
Sam Shueh
(408) 425-1601 - San Jose, CA
mba, cdpe, reopro, pe

If Silicon Valley is heading south, that would be the end of AI, Cloud, Self driving car, social network, robotic surgery, Airbnb, Lyft, Uber etc .... In other words, what is ahead technology wise is mostly coming out of here.  During the dot.com 85,000 casulties left the area. So we get 10,000 more new realtors, financial planners. If the market tanked ( highly unlikely) the investors will snatch up more again. It is common investors still possess 5-10 properties. 

Oct 20, 2018 08:01 AM
Rainmaker
5,442,068
Barbara Todaro
RE/MAX Executive Realty - Retired - Franklin, MA
Previously Affiliated with The Todaro Team

Richie.... we continue to be in a sellers' market in MA... we are in southern MA on the RI border.... very busy because we have one very strong referral source feeding us listings.... buyers have been waiting for listings, and they are appearing the moment we make the listing active in mls... 

what we are doing with investment properties that we list is calling the last buyer we had for a multi and offering it to him the day we list it... these are distant from our town, and we make the call before we go to install the sign and take photos.... the buyer (s) appear at the property... write up the full price offer and it's a done deal, as we install the sign!!!! 

that's the story of our "self correcting" production... we don't miss a beat... 

Oct 20, 2018 07:13 AM
Rainmaker
3,708,679
Wayne Martin
Wayne M Martin - Chicago, IL
Real Estate Broker - Retired

Shifts come slowly. Sometimes with warnings and sometimes not. Many shifts are local. No crystal ball here!

Oct 20, 2018 06:50 AM
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2,491,588
Fred Griffin Tallahassee Real Estate
Fred Griffin Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Licensed Florida Real Estate Broker

      Tallahassee is the Capital of Florida.  We will have a new Governor soon.  That new governor will bring in his own people.   Our current Governor's people will leave.  Department heads and bureau chiefs will be shuffled around.  Those changes in personnel and staff will result in houses being bought and sold.

    

Oct 20, 2018 08:11 AM
Rainmaker
4,432,971
Gita Bantwal
RE/MAX Centre Realtors - Warwick, PA
REALTOR,ABR,CRS,SRES,GRI - Bucks County & Philadel

I agree with Nina.

Oct 20, 2018 05:40 AM
Rainmaker
831,478
Annette Lawrence , Palm Harbor, FL 727-420-4041
ReMax Realtec Group - Palm Harbor, FL
Making FLORIDA Real Estate EZ

I'm not sure if your question is abouts ones perception of change in the local real estate market or the evolutional change of the industry.

Regarding the latter, The reality of 'You get what you pay for' will be imposed on agents. The disconnect between agent perception and consumer reality will become evident.

In the near term, those business models that focus on buyer conversion will prove more profitable.

Oct 20, 2018 05:34 AM
Rainmaker
1,992,436
Evelina Tsigelnitskaya
SIB Realty - Sunny Isles Beach, FL
www.SIBRealty.org 305-931-6931

50/50

Oct 21, 2018 11:03 AM
Rainmaker
1,527,337
Valeria Mola
SIB Realty - Miami, Sunny Isles Beach - Sunny Isles Beach, FL
305-607-0709 SIB Realty Condos for Sale and Rent

Right now we don't have seller's market and we don't have buyer's market. 

We are in transition.

Oct 21, 2018 10:43 AM
Ambassador
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Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
The right Charlotte REALTOR!

We will see a shift in the market, eventually, to a neutral market. For now, buyers are facing not only higher prices due to supply & demand but, with the interest rates continuing to rise, I think it will be sooner rather than later. 

Charlotte is high-tech, energy and healthcare - a major training area - so, a lot of our buyers are millennials. They've only known 3-5% - over that, they may very well put the brakes on buying. 

We shall seem Richie; we don't have a crystal ball but, we should always have our fingers on the pulse of our local markets!

Oct 20, 2018 10:05 PM
Rainmaker
3,109,163
John Pusa
Berkshire Hathaway Home Services Crest - Glendale, CA
Your All Time Realtor With Exceptional Service

Richie Alan Naggar rising interest rates might slow down the seller market.

Oct 20, 2018 02:12 PM
Rainmaker
5,976,293
Roy Kelley
Realty Group Referrals - Gaithersburg, MD

Affordibility continues to be a major issue in our market.

The result is thousands of rental units under construction.

Oct 20, 2018 09:58 AM
Rainmaker
1,316,042
Ryan Huggins - Thousand Oaks, CA
https://HugginsHomes.com - Thousand Oaks, CA
Residential Real Estate and Investment Properties

Prices are coming down in my market, but the sellers are still going to be making good profits, just not as good as before.  Quality of buyers is another story.  100% financing is back which is a very risky loan.  I think we'll move to a more neutral market as out here reports show a 25% increase in inventory and a 31 DOM increase to 96 days on market.

Oct 20, 2018 09:18 AM
Rainmaker
1,122,839
Gary Frimann, CRS, GRI
Eagle Ridge Realty / Signature Homes & Estates - Gilroy, CA
REALTOR and Broker

Wages hve not kept up with appreciation rates.  A lot of homeowners efinanced and we hadhistorically low interest rates, so despite wanting to move into something bigger and better, they stay put, thus creating an inventory shortage of homes for sale, which should somewhat sustain prices.

Oct 20, 2018 08:27 AM
Rainmaker
5,003,005
Ron and Alexandra Seigel
Napa Consultants - Carpinteria, CA
Luxury Real Estate Branding, Marketing & Strategy

Agreed.

Oct 20, 2018 07:50 AM
Rainmaker
1,077,127
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® e-Pro CRS RCS-D Vets
Big Block Realty 858.232.8722 - La Jolla, CA
& Host of Postcards From Success Podcast

Our market is a sellers market, a correcting market and a buyers market pending price & location. We've officially seen all three happening at once this year.

Oct 20, 2018 08:18 PM
Rainmaker
781,372
Olga Simoncelli
Veritas Prime, LLC dba Veritas Prime Real Estate - New Fairfield, CT
CONSULTANT, Real Estate Services & Risk Management

I don't see the high morale Richie, I see caution, especially regarding interest rates and taxes in areas that were hit, e.g. NY State, Connecticut. 

Oct 21, 2018 06:21 AM
Rainmaker
1,938,042
Michael J. Perry
KW Elite - Lancaster, PA
Lancaster, PA Relo Specialist

I think we have a couple of Sellers Market yet 

Oct 21, 2018 06:13 AM
Rainmaker
801,866
John Juarez
The Medford Real Estate Team - Fremont, CA
ePRO, SRES, GRI, PMN

The market is always subject to eventual change. We in the San Francisco Bay Area have had a very strong seller's market for a several years. Now, we are experiencing what I like to call a pause. We shall see what happens in late January and into February which is the time when the market has accelerated for the last few years, Richie Alan Naggar 

Oct 20, 2018 03:28 PM
Rainmaker
517,481
Steven Nickens
Wailea Realty - Wailea, HI
R(S)GRI ABR, Maui Real Estate Hawaii

I think as far as a seller's market it has peaked. On Maui under $1,000,000, it's still a pretty hot market.

Oct 21, 2018 12:48 PM
Rainmaker
4,441,591
Joan Cox
House to Home, Inc. - Denver Real Estate - 720-231-6373 - Denver, CO
Denver Real Estate - Selling One Home at a Time

Ours is a Sellers market also, but definitely slowing.  With the interest rising, buyers have decided to sit it out for now.

Oct 24, 2018 05:49 PM
Rainmaker
3,985,587
William Feela
WHISPERING PINES REALTY - North Branch, MN
Realtor, Whispering Pines Realty 651-674-5999 No.

I don't see a change in my area untilmiddle of next year whena new 1sgt time home developement is starting to build

Oct 22, 2018 07:16 PM
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Debbie Reynolds
Platinum Properties - Clarksville, TN
Your Dedicated Clarksville TN Real Estate Agent

We are seeing a slow down. Buyers are no longer jumping witthout thinking. The market is beginning to normalize. Maybe buyers have learned patience. Sellers are dropping prices.

Oct 21, 2018 06:18 PM
Rainmaker
3,531,085
Will Hamm
Hamm Homes - Aurora, CO
"Where There's a Will, There's a Way!"

I think it will slow down and interest rates will go up.

 

Oct 21, 2018 04:08 PM