The season is here. Or is it? The streets and restaurants in Flagstaff may be busy, but will the visitors who are escaping the heat in the Valley be in a home-buying mood? Will they give our residential market the jump-start that sellers have been waiting for? Sellers continue to be optimistic that the market will pick up. They cite factors including attractive interest rates, positive economic news, and a smorgasbord of choices for buyers. But let's take a closer look:Long-term interest rates continue to be low by historical standards (though they are up slightly this week). "Leading economic indicators" in general continue to be strong (though some are beginning to suggest a more sluggish economy in the next few months). But we had these same conditions last year and buyers did not bi... 05/22/2007

May 22 at City Hall, the Planning and Zoning Commission will hold its hearing on the proposed designation of the west downtown residential district as an official "historic district." Readers of this thread will recall that the City approved the district earlier this year and then found they had made a procedural mistake in only having a hearing before the Historic Commission and not the Planning and Zoning Commission. So now we are in "re-do" phase. The City Council will consider the commissions' recommendations in June. This Tuesday's meeting begins at 4 p.m. in City Council Chambers. 05/19/2007

Flagstaff Mid-Month Market Snapshot -- Heating Up It's heating up in Phoenix and the market is probably heating up here (they seem to go together).  Here are the stats on residential properties with Flagstaff mailing addresses as of May 15:ActivePending-Taking-BackupPendingSold in Last 30 Days824889773Using the traditional homes for sale divided by homes sold in the last month, we've got over eleven months' supply of homes. In other words, if you put your home on the market today and no one else listed a home for sale in the next 11 months, all the homes would be gone at the end of the eleven months. A buyer's market indeed.But if we look at "what's in the hopper," the picture is a bit different. Adding together all homes under contract and dividing that number into the homes available ... 05/17/2007

Many of Arizona's forests are at risk of unnatural, severe fires because of poor forest health. These fires can lead to skyrocketing costs for fire suppression, pollute surface water and impair watersheds, diminish recreational opportunities, threaten community and biological values, and have a negative impact on tourism and the economies of recreation-dependent communities. Targeted forest restoration may provide a solution.The Statewide Strategy for Restoring Arizona Forests presents a 20-year road map for restoring forest health, building sustainable forest-based businesses, and protecting rural communities from wildfire. The strategy is a response to the desire expressed by Arizona citizens at three Forest Health Summits. The Governor's Forest Health Councils are organizing meetings... 05/16/2007

With the city's wells pumping at capacity it's well to remember that city water restrictions are always in effect. The Arizona Daily Sun reported this morning that the city is about to begin tapping the very low reserve available in Lake Mary as well as pumping from the Inner Basin of the Peaks because the city wells are giving as much as they can on a daily basis. Read Daily Sun article. Questions regarding the watering restrictions should be directed to the City of Flagstaff Utilities Administration Office at 779-7646 or Ellen Ryan, Water Conservation Manager at 213-4827. 05/15/2007

The number of homes listed for sale in and around Flagstaff leapt upward from the beginning of April to the beginning of May, according to statistics of the Northern Arizona Association of Realtors® Multiple-Listing Service. Listings on MLS increased 153 units of all types (from 739 on April 3 to 892 on May 3). Meanwhile, only 89 units closed sales and the number of homes with pending contracts was also down on May 3 compared to April 3. The price changes compared to last year are quite startling. Remember, however, that the statistics for this year are weighted down by the condo-conversions that did not even exist as an available product last year. Some of those studio apartments, turned condo, are selling under for $125,000 - a sales price not seen in Flagstaff for a very long time. T... 05/14/2007

Various activities every day. Tomorrow (Monday) is the kick-off commuter ride beginning at 7:30 from City Hall -- follow a route though downtown to get into the spirit of the week and learn about the rest of the week's activities. Friday night there will be a celebration and awards event at the Orpheum Theatre. You can follow that up with Movies on the Square at Heritage Square Friday night at dusk. Let's hope it's as nice for the beginning of this summer long tradition as it was this weekend. Just in case, bring blankets! Movies begin at dusk, fun begins before that. 05/13/2007

and why the NAU parking garages are a good thing.  Some of my very good friends are quite upset at the "loss" of parking at NAU. What's really happening is the parking lots scattered throughout campus are being eliminated and new garages are being built at the perimeters of campus. So, the complaint is that you can't park right in front of your building. When I moved to Flagstaff in the Spring of 1995, I was enthralled with the vision of being outdoors a lot more and hiking in the beauty of mountains and forest. (I still am.) I thought I would become tremendously fit as a coincidence of being in what had previously been my ideal vacation spot. Thus, I was incredibly surprised in the Spring of 1999 to find I had gained twenty pounds since moving - even though I had hiked to and from Phan... 05/12/2007

Here it is! The center of downtown activities -- all year round (though it is chilly on New Year's Eve for the pine cone drop). Political rallies, music events, dog weddings (it's true, the mayor performed the ceremony), and Movies on the Square -- every Friday from May to Sept. Stop by and you're likely to find something interesting. Sunday it is the kickoff point for Bike to Work Week -- find a free helmet for your kid and a used bike for you. Within a block -- Italian food (x2), western food, southwestern food, Mexican food, great hamburgers, and sushi. Not to mention a few art galleries, trinket shops, and an outdoor supply store (or three). 05/11/2007

Cheshire townhomes were built by Marc Archer, a local builder responsible for several townhome developments about town, including some in the Country Club area and Boulder Pointe. Marc has now moved elsewhere to build on less expensive land.  These units are located on the northwest side of town, just north of the Museum of Northern Arizona in a neighborhood called Cheshire. 05/11/2007

A planned unit community northeast of Flagstaff. This was a very controversial development because it changed the standard county zoning from 2.5 acres to less than an acre on most lots. It turned out beautifully! Homes built beginning in 1999. Dedicated open space including an access corridor to the Coconino National Forest. Several lots are as over three acres. The only problem is that it continued the "urban sprawl".  05/11/2007

"All real estate is local, despite the headlines," says Lawrence Yun, the senior economist for the National Association of Realtors. Nationwide, the median existing-home price fell 1.3%, to $212,800 in February from $215,700 in February 2006, according to preliminary NAR statistics. Quoted in the Wall Street Journal today.Watch our statistics locally rather than listening to fairly meaningless nationwide percentages! Our newsletter reporting on April results will go to clients later this week. A partial report is in the last blog entry.  Another thought, although a bit more frivolous, is that all real estate is not just local, it's personal. Here's a comment I recently read:"I read many comments about how high the real estate is in Flagstaff and coming from Southern California have to s... 05/09/2007

Overall residential sale prices (median prices) are down slightly from 2006. However, prices of free-standing residential units are up slightly. The overall statistics are weighted down by the condo-conversions that did not even exist as an available product last year. Some of those studio apartments, turned condo, are selling under $125,000 - a sales price not seen in Flagstaff for a very long time. The average sale price for April 2007 was $365,698 and the median was $295,000. For a single family home, the average price was $471,047 and the median price was $370,000.  There is over a 10-month supply of home on the market. I'm often asked when I think the market will "come back."  My answer is that the market has not gone away. Homes are still selling and prices have not dropped - the ... 05/06/2007

Another busy weekend in Flagstaff this weekend.  It will be hard to choose. A few of the selections are below. Highlight of the week-end: Cinco de Mayo celebrations everywhere. My nomination for the most timely performance (although I am sure it was by chance): Theatrikos'  performance of the Laramie Project. The actors' performances were critically acclaimed in last week's Daily Sun review. It's timely because of the Congressional testimony this week by the central character's mother in support of the hate-crimes bill, which passed the U.S. House of Representatives yesterday for the first time.May 3-5*, 10-12* & 17-19 The Laramie Project by Moises Kaufman and the Tectonic Theatre Project (Live Action Play), Doris Harper-White Community Playhouse, 8:00 p.m. (*plus 2:00 p.m. matinee), $1... 05/04/2007

What a busy weekend in Flagstaff! Drama fans have two great choices this weekend: John Steinbeck's classic novel adapted for the stage in Grapes of Wrath, is playing at the Clifford White Theatre at NAU. The Laramie Project based upon the murder of Matthew Shepard is playing at the Doris Harper-White Community Playhouse.  One of the actors in The Laramie Project wrote to me: "I've killed myself onstage and been a nurse to a woman dying of cancer. Nothing compares to this." Here are other, more light-hearted, events of the weekend:April 27 Palette to Palate, Coconino Community College Lone Tree Campus, 2800 S. Lone Tree, 5:00-8:00 p.m., $25 general, $15 students. Auction of regional and student art to benefit CCC's Fine Arts Dept.April 27 Percussion Ensemble Concert, NAU Ardrey Auditoriu... 04/27/2007

When asking "why" about the state of the real estate market, a large and sometimes over-looked factor is the general state of the economy. Indeed, I overlooked it in yesterday's post. This morning's news brings a report of overall slowdown in the economy: Gross domestic product rose at a seasonally adjusted 1.3% annual rate January through March, the Commerce Department said Friday in the first estimate of first-quarter GDP. The surprisingly anemic pace lagged the fourth quarter's rate of 2.5% and reflected the slowest growth in GDP since 1.2% during the first quarter of 2003. Wall Street Journal, April 27Although unemployment remains low and the stock market is zinging (at least it was earlier this week), capital spending is weak. The latter factor signals that industry decision-makers... 04/27/2007

What is behind the slowdown in the Flagstaff housing market? Fundamentally, of course, there are fewer buyers than sellers right now. But why? One factor is certainly the slowdown in the Phoenix market. 18 months ago, Phoenix was the number one market in the nation measured by rate of price increase. Like it or not, Flagstaff --  just 140 miles, but a huge 20 degree summer temperature difference -- is a huge second-home escape location for Phoenicians. When Phoenix area residents are feeling wealthy, one of their likely expenditures is for a Flagstaff home. (Most estimates make 25% of our housing stock second homes.) Phoenicians' primary homes are now feeling less like piggy-banks to them than they were two years ago. Also, rates on the home equity loans that they might have taken to bu... 04/26/2007

For those of you following this thread, the second hearing on the "Re-Do" of the historic district between Thorpe Park and Downtown is scheduled for hearing tomorrow night before the Flagstaff Historic Commission. This pertains to a new Historic Overlay District zoning overlay that roughly covers the National Register of Historic Places Townsite Historic District. Here is the scoop on tomorrow night:Time: 5:00 PM - Tuesday, April 24, 2007Place: Flagstaff City Hall, Council Conference Room, 211 W. Aspen Avenue Subsequent meetings scheduled as follows:Planning & Zoning Commission meeting, May 22City Council meeting (1st Reading) Work Session, June 4City Council meeting (2nd Reading) July 19 04/23/2007

We're in a buyers' market. Right now there is a seven month supply of homes on the market. This means if you put your home on the market today, and no one else listed a home for the next seven months, seven months from now, the buyers available would have nothing to buy. Contrast this with some periods at the peak of the hot market when, if you had put your home on the market and no one else listed thereafter, six weeks later the available buyers would have had nothing to buy. Right now there are 821 residential units of all types and sizes (condos to acreages, one bedroom to mansions) for sale. Since March 21, 109 units have sold. Here are the stats from the MLS for all properties with Flagstaff mailing addresses, March 21, 2007-April 21, 2007:  Square Feet List Price Selling PriceDays... 04/21/2007

Ok, sun is out, at least part way. Today's event in Wheeler Park should be a big success. (It seems all Wheeler Park events are successful.) Wheeler Park is the grassy area between Aspen and Birch in front of the library and next to Humphrey's (for those of you from out of town -- the turn off Rt. 66 that takes you to the Snowbowl and Grand Canyon). It's in front of City Hall and across from the American Legion. On most weekends, you'll find some "event" -- some free, like today's, some for a fee. Many have good and tents for displays. Here is the scoop on today's event:  Title:Earth Day 2007Date:April 21, 2007Description:Earth Day Celebration 2007. Address:Wheeler ParkFlagstaff, AZ 86001 Location:Wheeler ParkHours:10:00 AM - 4:00 PM 04/21/2007