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Tallahassee, FL Real Estate News

By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
Ninety weeks after we started reporting real estate news with the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter, we are instituting a change in our publication schedule in order to improve upon our timely reporting service. As advocates of the “if it ain’t broken … break it!” school of change, we felt that we had more to offer. In the past, the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter was published every third Monday and it contained charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market, as well as an update on important real estate news. When readers had questions, they were most often addressed in replies via email (and thus were not available to the rest of the subscribers). We are going to try something new which might allow for a better distribution of reader prompted insight. The “We...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
If you are trying to sell a home and have not succeeded, then you are like much of your competition. It is expected that 70% of the homes on the market today, as well as those that will enter the market over the next year, will fail to sell. It should be obvious to anybody paying attention that home values are dropping and that competition for home sales is rising. So, if you have been trying to sell a home and have not heard, the market’s message to “borderline” home sellers is “just go ahead and remove your home from the market.” It will not sell. Only the highly motivated home sellers will sell, and they had better utilize all of the vast resources  for home sellers available to them to succeed in this very difficult housing market. A cursory review of the Tallahassee MLS this mornin...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
  For our long-time readers, it should not come as a big surprise when we report that the number of distress properties in Tallahassee is soaring. Banks are finally starting to clean up their portfolio’s and that means that they are not dragging their feet (as much) on converting lis pendens to foreclosure sales. In the real estate graph to the right, we show the trend of lis pendens filings (the start of the foreclosure process shown in green) and the trend of annual foreclosure sales (the end of the foreclosure process shown in red). By comparing the two trends, we can calculate the ratio of foreclosure sales to lis pendens filed in order to see “how serious” lenders are pushing delinquent loans. The blue line in the graph shows that our current trend has hit 41%, which tells us quite...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
  Nobody has been hit harder than home builders with the down-turn in the economy and falling housing market. Here at the Tallahassee Real Estate Web Site, we often write about the glut of homes for sale on the market and why we do not need any more inventory, but we often fail to point out the fact that it means many great Tallahassee businessmen and employees will be out of work. The glut of homes for sale in Tallahassee means that the demand-side of the market is in complete control right now, so home builders have no orders to build new homes. Currently demand is falling due to a combination of tightened borrowing requirements as well as the end of a year-long stimulus program that motivated buyers (back then) who would have been home buyers today, so the prospects for improvement a...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
At CENTURY 21 First Realty, we believe that if you track tons of information and record it on a daily basis, the market will speak to us through our  Tallahassee housing charts and graphs. While no specific real estate graph can express succinctly the current state of the housing market, the totality of the market can be gleaned by viewing some key trend charts and reports. REMINDER: The Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter will publish and deliver the 30th edition on Monday of next week. We have just received the market data for the month of August, so plenty of new real estate graphs and charts will be featured in this edition. Real Estate Graph Shows Year Over Year Home Sales Decline Tallahassee home sales dropped 20% each month following the end of the Homebuyer Tax Credit, when compa...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
Maintaining solid real estate trend analysis allows us to have a great understanding of where the housing market will head in the near future. Too often, we see the real estate lobby or the national media report on housing market changes from one month to another, with no regard to normal seasonal fluctuations that usually occur each and every year. We see reports of recovery that are skewed, mostly due to the ignorance (or the bias) of the reporting entity. I like to use historic data and follow a real estate trend analysis that considers year over year changes as significant in the housing market. For example, I have found that closings that occur in September are almost always fewer than closings that occur in August, thus seeing a drop from August to September is expected. This is a...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
We have often reported in the past that population growth is the most likely cure for the troubled housing market in Tallahassee, as well as the rest of the State of Florida. With a glut of homes for sale in Tallahassee, as well as a very large shadow inventory, the solution is more “occupants” to take residence in our great city. Recently, the University of Florida released its latest preliminary population estimates, reporting: The Sunshine State is estimated to have had the modest addition of more than 21,000 residents between 2009 and 2010 after its population fell by more than 56,000 between 2008 and 2009, said Stan Smith, director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. The population figures are interim estimates that will be replaced by numbers from the 2010 census wh...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
If you have a home for sale in Tallahassee (or anywhere for that matter), you should check to make sure that your listing in the Tallahassee MLS is both accurate and complete. A review of the Tallahassee Board of REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service this morning showed that many “tricks of the trade” are not being utilized by all of the real estate companies in Tallahassee. I was prompted to do this check because recently a reader wrote in with a question about where to go to find information about creative financing and other options a home seller needs to consider in a market where roughly 60% of the listed homes fail to sell (see graph on right). This reader is about to list her property with us and wants to ensure that she employs every possible technique that she can to get the home...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
The long term trends being recorded from the Tallahassee MLS show that the housing market in North Florida is definitely slowing down. By tracking the changes that occur each day and then looking at the trailing 12 months, we can find trend changes in the market as soon as they occur. Right now all trends continue to show a reduction in activity. One Year Home Inventory Trends In Tallahassee In the real estate graph above, the blue line shows that the number of homes being listed each day is falling, while the red line shows that the number of homes leaving the market (through failure to sell) are also declining. The green line shows that daily sales trend has fallen as has the purple line which measures new pending home sales in Tallahassee.
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
One statistic that we track here on a very regular basis is something that we refer to as the Home Sales Success Rate. Every day we track each home that enters and leaves the market, and then we sort out what has occurred. For the homes leaving the market, we determine whether they left successfully (by being sold), or whether they failed (the listing expired, was canceled, or was withdrawn). By dividing the two into the whole, we can then determine the success rate (and failure rate) of Tallahassee home sellers. Home Sales Success Rate Is Dropping The home sales success rate had been rising for more than a year, after hitting a miserable, unthinkable bottom at 30% in June 2009. A few weeks ago, we appear to have crowned the market and now are heading the other way. With the end of the ...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
We have faced many struggles in the Tallahassee real estate market over the past few years, but I suspect we might be heading into the worst of it right now. All of the housing reports that we monitor to give us a picture of current trends are negative, with most of our models predicting another downward move in the market for the foreseeable future. As I always like to point out when bringing negative news, I am entirely bullish on the long term of Tallahassee real estate. We are (and will be) trading below cost in the housing market, due to the gross over-supply that came with the boom-market that ended in 2006. We over-built homes in Tallahassee, and it will take time for the consumption to bring us back to a balanced market. But once that balance is achieved, we can expect real esta...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
One important factor in home affordability is your Florida property taxes, and we have been dealing with rising property taxes for quite some time. But in 2008, property tax reform completely changed “the rules,” thus bringing a whole lot of confusion to something that should be relatively simple to understand. I received a question from a long-time reader and past client regarding property taxes. James wrote: I lived in Tallahassee for 8 years and was fortunate to use your company to sell my home in May of this year. Bill Peck was my Realtor. I now live in Miami, and I have a question about property taxes. What makes up the property taxes and why is there a big disparity in the taxes from state to state and different counties within a state? For instance, my yearly property tax was ab...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
Fannie Mae is cracking down on lenders and loan servicers who are taking too long to complete routine foreclosures. On August 31, 2010, the message was loud and clear in the Fannie Mae Servicing Guide that it was time to speed this process up in an effort to push the market through and past the biggest backlog of distressed properties the market has ever seen. The new Fannie Mae Servicing Guide (which can be downloaded here) appears to be an attempt to push foreclosures through the system at a faster pace, which hopefully will get them through the market even faster. With this Announcement, Fannie Mae: has updated the allowable foreclosure time frames for four states; is monitoring all delinquent loans in Fannie Mae’s portfolio or MBS pools, and will begin notifying servicers of delays...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
I have many different Google Alerts set up to monitor the internet activity which centers on the Tallahassee real estate market. With my focus on real estate SEO (search engine optimization), I know that I have to stay vigilant on the changes that are occurring every day. The alerts allow me to keep up to date with any new sites or new tools that come along. So this morning I was checking my email and the several alerts that Google had sent my way. One alert is set to show me any new websites who have a competing interest in the Tallahassee real estate market, and I always chuckle when I see a new “boiler plate” site appear. It is so obvious to me that most real estate agents have no understanding of real estate seo when they purchase one of these “packages,” as their new site will nev...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
The FHA Refinance of Borrowers in Negative Equity Positions is a new program, effective September 7, 2010, designed to help people who are upside down in their current home loans. This blog article will summarize the FHA refinance program which can be downloaded from our resource center at the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog. Passed in March of 2010, a combined effort from HUD and the Department of the Treasury allows borrowers who are current on their mortgage to qualify for an FHA refinance loan provided that the lender or investor writes off the unpaid principal balance of the original first lien mortgage by at least 10 percent. Considering the Tallahassee housing market has seen values drop roughly 30% since the peak of the market, this could provide some relief for Tallahassee home o...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
  Vacant home conditions have always been a concern in the Tallahassee real estate market, when neighbors wonder what is being done to maintain a property until it is sold. But with the glut of homes for sale in our current market, this condition is something that we might actually see get out of hand. Recently, I have received two emails requesting that our real estate brokerage company maintain properties that we have listed for sale in Tallahassee. While I certainly understand the neighbors concern about vacant home conditions and values in the neighborhood, I also know that real estate companies do not have the means nor the budget to do this type of work. I know we all would like to maintain these properties in the best condition for sale, but unfortunately it is not going to happe...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
Some of the loudest voices in the investment markets are calling for the real beginning to the housing recovery to start next year. Others are saying the problems will be around for many years to come. I say the answer is right in front of us and can be measured at any time, thus the talking heads really do not need to theorize. Bullish On Real Estate (Long Term) Anybody who has followed the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog or the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter over the past few years will know that we have a glut of homes for sale in Tallahassee, and they also know that home values are currently dropping. If you follow along with the rest of this newsletter, you will see many reasons to be bearish on real estate for the next several years.  But don’t lose sight of the long-term realit...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
In much of my writing, I often mention that home sellers should interview real estate companies, not just real estate agents. This comment goes relatively unchallenged and unnoticed for the most part, but every once in a while I get feedback. Most often times, the feedback comes from a real estate agent, and location does not seem to matter, as real estate is practiced in a similar manner in most communities in the US housing market. This morning, I read a blog post by Jay Thompson (the Phoenix Real Estate Guy) who did some quick math to determine just how many REALTORS® walk among us, in terms of REALTORS® per capita. I did not find it surprising that Florida had the second most REALTORS® in the country, nor did I find it surprising that Florida was also number 2 in REALTORS® per capi...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
When a home seller hires a real estate company for the job of selling a home, they often feel like their work is done and all they have to do is sit back and let the REALTOR® take over. And as much as we would like to be able to provide this level of service, there are just too many things that fall under the heading of “seller’s job” that require the seller to play their role in the sale of a home. As you might expect, a great real estate company will extensively market the home across the internet. They will drive traffic from the large, national real estate sites to their local real estate site with the intent of featuring the home as uniquely local and a true gem. Assuming that the real estate company has a modern, progressive marketing plan to sell a home on the internet, then the...
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By Joe Manausa - Tallahassee, FL, Tallahassee Real Estate
(Joe Manausa Real Estate)
I just love the 25th of the month. I wake up every 25th of the month, grab a cup of coffee, then look to see what the National Association Of REALTORS® has to report on existing-home sales across the US housing markets. Lately, meaning over the past few years, it has been an interesting game of “spin the numbers.” How can we make bad news look as good as possible. The Existing-Home Sales Report has again been spun by NAR for July, but the stock market wasn’t buying it. The US housing market is in grave danger. July Existing-Home Sales Fall Even the title of their article is a spin on reality, as NAR reports “July Existing-Home Sales Fall as Expect but Price Rise.” Fortunately, we knew this was coming and you can even see that back at the end of March of 2010 we were warning “Don’t Be Fo...
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