5th Annual Asian Festival Italian-American Cultural Center28 Mulberry Street Worcester, MA 01605 June 29, 2008FREE Admission Event is from 12:00-6:00pm Food and Traditional Dances from Vietnam, Cambodia, Korea, Laos, Japan, Philippines and India.Also come to see Fashion shows and Martial Art demonstrations. Sponsored by : Southeast Asian Coalition of Central Mass George F. and Sybil H. Fuller Foundation Mass Cultural Commission Umass Memorial Healthcare India Society of Worcester Family Health Center The Southeast Asian Coalition is a not-for-profit organization that supports, promotes and advocates for the success of the Southeast Asians of Central Massachusetts in mainstream society. For more information, visit http://seacma.org/ 06/18/2008

CPI was in line with expectations and PPI was a bit hotter this morning.  Mortgage Bonds seems to have drawn a line in the sand for now and are attempting a reversal.  We finished up 50 bps on the day closing right inbetween a dual layer of resistance.  Bonds are also highly oversold which should bring some more buyers into this market and drive the price up a bit, thus dropping rates.  Let's hope this continues tomorrow and we get rates back to the mid 6% range.    For now we are FLOATING!   _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The above Mortgage Market Update information was provided by Bryan Flynn of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.  Bryan can be reached at Bryan.K.Flynn@wellsfargo.com or by phone at 508.363... 06/17/2008

Mortgage backed securities are trading flat on the day down just 3bps this morning.  Bonds have been in a downward trend for the last 2 weeks and rates have crept up .75% higher nearing 7.00%. The recent pressure on bonds are due to the pressure the heightened inflation concerns of the market.  The Fed meets next week and bonds traders are looking for short-term rates to be increased which will be great for long-term bond rates....however don't expect much more than shift in the policy statement. Floating for now.... 06/16/2008

Well it is official......the bond market is fearful of inflation.  Some decent CPI numbers came out this morning but that was overshadowed this afternoon by the word no bullish bond trader wants to here........INFLATION is here and rising......well on the flip side it is quite obvious with the cost of food and energy.  The manufacturing, wholesalers, and retailers are going have to pass their rising costs off to the consumer, at least partially and that leads to inflation. At the end of May mortgage rates were in the low 6s and we are just another down day away from 7% conforming rates. Bond traders are making their feelings loud and clear to the FED they want the funds rate to be raised.  The Fed meetings in 2 weeks and it will be interesting to see what Big Ben and his posse with do. ... 06/13/2008

Mortgage Bonds are down 38 bps this morning as of 920am EST.  Stock futures are up and oil is down which is leading to bond deterioration.  Retail sales were released this morning and came in better than expected for May and better than they were in April, very good news for consumer sentiment.  Some people did receive their stimulus checks at the end of May so that may have added to the positive numbers.  With a dual layer of support just behind current prices it would be prudent to FLOAT for now. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The above Mortgage Market Update information was provided by Bryan Flynn of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.  Bryan can be reached at Bryan.K.Flynn@wellsfargo.com or by phone at 5... 06/12/2008

    On a technical note, mortgage bonds are down 5 straight session at 216 bps points....rates have rose to the 6.625% area on a conventional 30 year fixed.  Bonds are oversold, which generally indicates that the buyers will be back and drive prices back up.  When bonds drop suddenly they have a tendancy to retest half of their loss so in this case upside of above 100 bps...there is no guarantee and a lot with have to do with what the future economic indicators say, but technically it hopefully will happen That being said bonds are trading high by 28 bps going into the retail sales number.        06/11/2008

  Non-farm payrolls estimated -60,000 actual -49000 (better than expected...good news for the economy bad for mortgage rates)  Unemployment numbers  estimated 5.1% actual is 5.5% (huge jump of .5% last time this happened was in 1986.....THIS IS A HUGE NUMBER PROBABLY CATCHING UP TO WHATEVER EVERYONE WAS EXPECTING) Unemployed workers surged by 861,000 last month.  There are now 8.5 million unemployed in the US. We are still not technically in a traditional recession but seem to be in growth recession with rising unemployment with not enough grow to accommodate new workers coming into the labor force.  Mortgage Bonds prior to these numbers were down 25 bps on the day and in a down trend.......with those number bonds are now up 9 bps........the dust has not settled with these number....wai... 06/06/2008

  Mortgage Bonds are down again today after breaking through the 200 day moving average yesterday afternoon.  Initial jobless claims where lower than expected this morning and the umemployment rate is released tomorrow and given the inconsistentcy of this number recently we will remain in a LOCK.  Should be a big market mover tomorrow.  Stay tuned.... 06/05/2008

Mortgage Bonds are trading lower this morning and surprise, surprise they are sitting right on the 200 day moving average.  On Monday bonds broke through and closed above the 200 DMA and did trade below it yesterday but closed in positive territory at the end of the trading day.  Technically yesterday was a bulls v. bears struggle because of the wide trading range so it could be another day of uncertainty in the mortgage bond market. Productivity and ISM Index both came in better than consensus and stocks have been down over the past few days so I expect a weaker bond market at least this morning.....if you took advantage of yesterday's reprice and locked you are in good shape, otherwise it is a wait and see what bonds do at the key level. Unemployment numbers to be released Friday whi... 06/04/2008

Mortgage bonds are trading -6 bps this morning with no economic data on the docket for today.  Fed chairman Bernanke is speaking this morning about the economy and he could move markets, other than that bond trading will be driven by the stock market (stocks up bonds down vice versa) Bonds did close above the 200 day moving average yesterday and if those levels can hold today bonds rates should be trending lower for the next few days.  Some employment, productivity and manufacturing numbers are to be released tomorrow that could sway the markets, but for now I recommend a FLOAT as we still trade above the 200 day moving average. 06/03/2008

Mortgage bonds are up 22 bps this morning.  After the selloff Friday afternoon, pricing should be right inline with the Friday morning rate sheets.  Just 9 bps higher and bonds hit the strong resistance level at the 200 day moving average.  Wait and see what rates do after the ISM number is released this morning at 10am. The ISM is released on the 1st business day of each month reflecting the manufacturing industry for the previous month.  Its a survey of purchasing executives at roughly 300 industrial companies.  A number above 50 show expansion and below 50 contraction. Last month's number was 48.6 and it is estimated this month to be 48.  Stay tuned...as it is a market mover.  Update 1040am:  ISM came out at 49.6 better than expect but doesn't seem to be enough to break through the ... 06/02/2008

Mortgage Bonds are up 41 bps as of 910am this morning.  Core PCE, Personal Consumption Expenditures without food and energy, was released this morning in line with estimates, inflation is still under control.  Year or Year PCE is 2.1% slightly above the Fed's target range of 1-2% but this the Fed expects that to creep up in the coming year more before it retreats back to their comfort zone. Expect a nice pop in rate sheets this morning has bonds test resistance at the 200 day moving average.  Yesterday bond did rally late day and close very near this open, this shows indecisiveness with the bulls and the bears, but give the bears the edge for now.  The close yesterday should be a new level of support which would potentially narrow the trading range of bonds.  Bonds are 1 tick below the... 05/30/2008

Well so much for hoping rates would stay above the 200 day moving average as I hoped ina blog post last night:  May 28th Mortgage Bond Chart Bonds gapped open lower today by a negative 31 bps.  We are now down 75 bps are should lock everything under the sun for now as there is still a decent amount of downside in the bond market. The GDP grow for the first quarter was revised upward to 0.9% from 0.6% and the job market is still showing some stability.  Overall decent news.  Watch for my selling pressure this afternoon.  Bonds have been in a sideways trading range since the middle of march and it seems we have broken through the downside of that range today.  05/29/2008

Today I posted my mortgage market update for the day and recommended to FLOAT because we had tested a key level of support at the 200 day moving average which we did bounce off.  Just after 1pm, bonds did fall through that support and I changed my bias to a LOCK position, so I updated my blog to let people know .  Most lenders did reprice their rate sheet for the worse so it was the prudent advice.  The bond market did rally back however and close right above the 200 day moving average.  So tomorrow we should see some better pricing and if the PCE on Friday is in check even better pricing. The chart above shows the Fannie Mae 5.5% coupon mortgage bond.  Each "candlestick" represents one trading day.  The green ones are days the close is above the open and the red are days the open is a... 05/28/2008

Durable goods orders were released this morning for April coming in better than expected at -0.5%.  The estimate was -1.5%.  Durable goods are manufacturing goods that are expect to last at least three years.  Usually a better than expected number means that companies are spending extra capital on equipment for future growth and the economy will be doing better down the road while inflation could be reduced.  However the March number of a growth of 0.1% was revised downward to -0.3% which the mortgage bond market is not taking well.  Bonds are down 31 bps after bouncing off their lows of 50 bps at the 200 day moving average. I recommend a FLOATING position on all new business because it seems that the damage has been done for now and bonds have held and bounced off a key level of suppo... 05/28/2008

Well Consumer Confidence just hit the wire for the month of May at 57.2 missing estimates of 61.0, meaning consumers are losing confidence faster than expected.  New home sales beat expectations by 6,000 and increased over last month by 17,000.  Although this is positive, new home sales account for just 16% of the total housing market.  Standard & Poor's Case Shiller Index reported today a 14.4% drop in the last year and 16 consecutive months of decline.  The index rates only the 20 Major Metro Areas and in my opinion should not reflect the entire nation numbers because of increase in those area was much greater than the average increase across the rest of the United States. On Friday the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure will be released, expect it t... 05/27/2008

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I just signed up with a new website to help market my mortgage services to the consumer through a For Sale By Owner website.  People trying to sell their homes by themselves can list it on this site.  I just launched it last week and had some positive responds already.  This free service draws in leads from potential buyers as well as providing a value-added service to sellers that if they eventually need to list with a real estate agent I can refer one to them. Check out Worcester for sale by owner which is my site on HomesbyLender.com.  This website features regularly updated home for sale by owner listings in Massachusetts and every other state in the nation. I would like to hear any positive or negative feedback from agents out there about a mortgage broker working with FSBOs. -Brya... 05/11/2008

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