Philip A. Raices, 1 of the Most Knowledgeable Brokers on the Net! (Turn Key Real Estate)

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Rainmaker
4,512,925
Wayne Martin
Wayne M Martin - Chicago, IL
Real Estate Broker - Retired

What goes up will come down! As for how high up, who knows. I once had to take a loan the high teens for three points up front and a 15 year amortization. You have to do what you have to do when you have to do it. Anything in the single digits, with or without points is doable for most people,

Jun 23, 2022 04:47 AM
Ambassador
3,941,285
Brian England
Arizona Focus Realty - Gilbert, AZ
MBA, GRI, REALTOR® Real Estate in East Valley AZ

My crystal ball stopped working a long time ago but I doubt they will ever go back down into the 2's again but then again the politicians do some unbelievable things, haha.

Jun 23, 2022 05:12 AM
Rainmaker
2,125,376
Andrew Mooers | 207.532.6573
MOOERS REALTY - Houlton, ME
Northern Maine Real Estate-Aroostook County Broker

Regardless of how high or low the cost of money is, there is always a real estate market. People gotta sell, wanna buy and if interest rates are higher, the property prices will drop as the supply of inventory increases.

I am in today's small rural local market which is more cash than bank buyers so interest rates not such a worry. My first home loan was a 12.25% fixed one in a time of adjustable 16% and higher rates so you and I will survive anything that happens. Plan for the worse, hope for the best and just list, market, sell (repeat). Put all your effort into list, market sell (repeat) regardless of where rates are down the pike Philip A. Raices .

Jun 23, 2022 03:05 AM
Rainmaker
1,347,715
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® e-Pro CRS RCS-D Vets
Big Block Realty 858.232.8722 - La Jolla, CA
& Host of Postcards From Success Podcast

Recessions historically lower rates, I think (guessing) 6.25% is our ceiling and we'll see a drop eventually (see the graph Jason E. Gordon shared with me). Each grey line is a recession and see what rates are doing?!

Jun 22, 2022 09:39 PM
Ambassador
3,071,652
Tammy Lankford,
Lane Realty Eatonton, GA Lake Sinclair, Milledgeville, 706-485-9668 - Eatonton, GA
Broker GA Lake Sinclair/Eatonton/Milledgeville

I think they will back off some in 6 weeks.  Banks don't make money without making loans.  I see 5 ish 

Jun 22, 2022 08:19 PM
Rainmaker
914,708
Annette Lawrence , Palm Harbor, FL 727-420-4041
ReMax Realtec Group - Palm Harbor, FL
Making FLORIDA Real Estate EZ

Going to keep going up and up.
When the public is weary of global warming, underserved population, Covid, supply chain, Ukraine, Putin, the admin still has the Monkey Pox card to play.
The admin will avoid accountability
Fed rate 3.1 
Mortgage rate 9.25.
Yes it will go down to get out of the recession.

Jun 23, 2022 04:48 AM
Rainmaker
2,054,695
Bob "RealMan" Timm
Ward County Notary Services - Minot, ND
Owner of Ward Co Notary Services retired RE Broker

I am a really BAD guesser Philip A. Raices so you may want to use my advice and do the opposite. I'd say 6% and then The Donnald will get it down shortly after he takes office in 2024.

Jun 23, 2022 08:24 AM
Ambassador
1,876,491
Carol Williams
Although I'm retired, I love sharing my knowledge and learning from other real estate industry professionals. - Wenatchee, WA
Retired Agent / Broker / Property Manager

I am smart enough to know I am not smart enough to know the answer to that question... and a lot of other questions too.

Jun 23, 2022 08:12 AM
Rainmaker
1,049,102
Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Realty Evolution - Topsfield, MA - Georgetown, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

Guessing 7% to 9% and yes they will come down and go up and come down and go up...lol

Jun 23, 2022 06:51 AM
Rainer
302,357
Don Baker
Lane Realty - Eatonton, GA
Lake Sinclair Specialist

I have no idea where they will land.  Hopefully not where they did in the 80s

Jun 22, 2022 08:27 PM
Rainer
349,116
Caroline Gerardo
Licensed in 20 states - Newport Beach, CA
C. G. Barbeau the Loan Lady nmls 324982

We are already in recession as of April 2022. Graph depends on the time frame. Rates the will come down in the future, but they will increase until we solve supply chain and oil prices.  I wrote a numbers post on my personal blog not here with rates since 1971 verses each of the economic recessions America experienced. Most were determined by oil. Prior to 1971 is was war. 

We aren't supposed to link to our own site I believe but give me a day and I will put it up on this site.   

Philip A. Raices   I wrote a blog post for you on my opinion/ answer despite how headachey the formatting is on AR

Jun 23, 2022 09:36 AM
Rainmaker
1,425,400
Ryan Huggins - Thousand Oaks, CA
https://HugginsHomes.com - Thousand Oaks, CA
Residential Real Estate and Investment Properties

I'd like to see them back in the double digits.  Of course they'll come back down eventually, everything is on a cycle of ups and downs.

Jun 23, 2022 08:37 AM
Ambassador
3,146,142
Kathleen Daniels, Probate & Trust Specialist
KD Realty - 408.972.1822 - San Jose, CA
Probate Real Estate

My crystal ball was destroyed in the October 1989 earthquake.  

It is what it is and will be what it will be. My role is to navigate, adjust, tweak, and realign as the world and real estate turn. 

Jun 23, 2022 08:08 AM
Rainmaker
868,248
Jeff Pearl
RE/MAX Distinctive / LIC in VA - Lovettsville, VA
Full Service Full Time Realtor

rates

6.75

Jun 23, 2022 06:20 AM
Rainmaker
6,969,733
Roy Kelley
Retired - Gaithersburg, MD

Some of us were in the business when mortgage rates were in the 16% range. Our thoughts were that everything would be okay if they got back to 12%. Be thankful if rates do not go above the 6-7% range.

Jun 23, 2022 05:56 AM
Rainmaker
5,268,237
Joan Cox
House to Home, Inc. - Denver Real Estate - 720-231-6373 - Denver, CO
Denver Real Estate - Selling One Home at a Time

Who knows?    Sure hope it hovers around where we are now, versus going up anymore.

Jun 23, 2022 05:08 AM
Rainmaker
579,943
Jason E. Gordon
AmeriFirst Financial Inc, San Diego, CA - San Diego, CA
Sr Loan Officer, CMA, CMPS, CDLP, CDRE, RCSD, CDPE

A recession appears imminent (likely by year end). As a follow-up to the image shared by Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® e-Pro CRS RCS-D Vets , here is some additional data. In short, rates will drop soon.

Rates vs Recessions

 

Jun 23, 2022 01:14 PM
Rainmaker
419,548
Shayne Stone
HomeSmart - Fulshear, TX
"Your Rock Solid Choice Realtor"

I think the way this Administration is doing things; the rates will increase well over 7% or higher.  Good news is maybe we'll get back the 5% earnings in our Savings Account that we lost back in the 90's - LOL

 

 

Jun 23, 2022 10:46 AM
Ambassador
3,387,375
Anna Banana Kruchten CRS, Phoenix Broker
HomeSmart Real Estate BR030809000 - Phoenix, AZ
602-380-4886

 

It's so hot in Phoenix my crystal ball isn't working at the moment!

Jun 23, 2022 10:09 AM
Rainmaker
1,135,981
Kevin J. May
Florida Supreme Realty - Hobe Sound, FL
Serving the Treasure & Paradise Coasts of Florida

I should live so long Philip. I'm guessing they'll ebb & flow for the next 15 years between 6% and 9%. We could see 4% again when all is said and done but don't hold your breath. 

Jun 23, 2022 08:21 AM
Rainmaker
2,684,352
Richie Alan Naggar
people first...then business Ran Right Realty - Riverside, CA
agent & author

A very telling point of what rising rates are intended to do is the tax rate. When this is added on to the now expensive monthly debt to purchase, it prices many people out of the purchasing market. To own or rent is becoming challenging and requires not one or two incomes but even more than that. What is of most concern is that fear is driving it all. That indicates a low confidence in USA leadership making people uneasy. How high will rates go? If they are trying to stop homeownership, lending and all the collateral related dynamics of the process, we are fast approaching that threshold. The resetting of it all will require a presidential election

Jun 23, 2022 05:38 AM
Ambassador
1,861,272
Alan May
Jameson Sotheby's International Realty - Evanston, IL
A moving experience!

That's a tough one.. we never expected rates to drop as low as they have in recent years, and yet there they were at almost "free money" rates for several years.

Back in the day, we saw double-digit interest rates, and not all that long ago.

I would think we haven't seen even close to the highest rates, yet.  And we're not going to see a return to those low 3's, for many, many years.

Jun 23, 2022 05:35 AM
Rainmaker
688,013
Tony Lewis
Summit Real Estate Group - Valencia, CA
Summit Real Estate Group Valencia & Aliso Viejo

I predict that a top qualified buyer with 20% down on a conforming conventional loan will peak at 6.875%  Rates will go way down and back up, rinse and repeat.

Jun 22, 2022 11:09 PM
Rainmaker
524,181
Buzz Mackintosh
Mackintosh REALTORS - Frederick, MD
“Experience, reliable, leadership”

With the current administration in place , the sky is the limit. However what goes up must come down. 

Jun 23, 2022 01:21 PM
Rainmaker
601,206
Lynnea Miller
Bend Premier Real Estate - Bend, OR
Premier Real Estate Service in Central Oregon

The last few years were an anomaly with interest rates.  A normal average over the past 50 years is over 6%.  I think we will get back to those rates. 

Jun 23, 2022 12:09 PM
Rainmaker
938,800
Candice A. Donofrio
Next Wave RE Investments LLC Bullhead City AZ Commercial RE Broker - Fort Mohave, AZ
928-201-4BHC (4242) call/text

Guesstimate? I gotta creestol boll! 🔮 

I honestly don't think it will be long, we may not see 3% again or for a good while, but I suspect we may see a downward adjustment in basis points in the coming year.

Jun 23, 2022 08:58 AM
Rainmaker
808,867
Carla Freund
Keller Williams Preferred Realty - Raleigh, NC
Carolina Life RealEstate & Relocation 919-602-8489

I've heard as high as 7.75%-8% by the end of the year so we'll see. I do think they'll come down to the 5s again.

Jun 23, 2022 08:40 AM
Rainmaker
92,445
Philip A. Raices
Turn Key Real Estate - Great Neck, NY
1 of the Most Knowledgeable Brokers on the Net!

Dear Active Rain Participants, Andrew, Thomas, Tammy, Joan, Annette, Wayne, Don, Brian and Tony

Thank you for your very interesting and varied answers.  If and when we have a recession, I am very curious if the same trend in the past will hold true about rates going down during and following a recession.  It makes common sense when no one is purchasing, and less are applying for mortgages, that like durable goods, cars etc. they will discount their interest rates or at least the Fed, assuming Jerome Powell will still be our Fed,  will signal a lower discount rate and the banks and lending institutions will follow suit and only time will reveal the answers!

Jun 23, 2022 05:24 AM
Rainmaker
844,492
Olga Simoncelli
Veritas Prime, LLC dba Veritas Prime Real Estate - New Fairfield, CT
CONSULTANT, Real Estate Services & Risk Management

Who knows? I've seen Prime at 21%, so nothing would surprise me. Don't think rates will go that high this time. 

Jun 24, 2022 05:40 AM
Rainmaker
520,283
Ray Henson
eXp Realty of California, Inc. (lic. #01878277) - Elk Grove, CA
Realtor

I wish I had not dropped my crystal ball.  It was really useful in the past. 🤣

Jun 23, 2022 08:30 PM
Rainmaker
734,295
Steve Higgins
RE/MAX Kelowna - Kelowna, BC

I don't think they will go into the double digits  and yes I believe they will come back down at some point.

Jun 23, 2022 06:33 PM
Rainmaker
1,002,368
John Juarez
The Medford Real Estate Team - Fremont, CA
ePRO, SRES, GRI, PMN

Anything posted here is a guess and the time in which one or another guess may be proved prescient is totally indeterminable.

Jun 23, 2022 06:13 PM
Ambassador
1,009,981
John Meussner
Mortgages in AZ, CA, CO, DE, FL, GA, MD, MN, MT, NC, NJ, NV, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WI - Fair Oaks, CA
#MortgageMadeEasy Fair Oaks, CA 484-680-4852

Beginning of the year my crystal ball didn't account for the fact that the Fed was immensely slow to act (what we saw coming in Q3-4 of last year they didn't acknowledge til Q2 of this year), nor that China would STILL be dealing with restrictive COVID measures.

That said, my forecast is that rates will peak mid 6's this summer (we're there now, considering many products in the low 6's require points) due to inflation metrics still being high, but come fall, inflation numbers will have dipped, economic numbers should be more realistic (and worse) than what we see today, unemployment will likely spike, and the realization of a recession takes hold.

 

And yes, rates will come down.  The mortgages people are getting today are not the mortgages they'll have 12-24 months from now.

Jun 23, 2022 01:32 PM
Rainmaker
963,663
Peter Mohylsky. BRIX REALTY
Brix Realty - Destin - Miramar Beach, FL
BRIX REALTY -DESTIN

What Goes up must come down.  but when is the answer I do not have..  

Jun 23, 2022 07:04 AM
Ambassador
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Bob Crane
Woodland Management Service / Woodland Real Estate, EXP - Stevens Point, WI
Forestland Experts! 715-204-9671

We have seen high interest before and they will come down.  No politicians want to see higher interest rates than are needed to help curb inflation.  

Jun 23, 2022 07:48 PM
Rainmaker
1,759,839
Lyn Sims
Schaumburg, IL
Real Estate Agent Retired

I'm gonna go with the graph & past trends. 

Jun 23, 2022 11:04 AM